On Sept. 19, the Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC) released its 2024 Pipeline Report. The report’s analysis was performed by Oliver Wyman Vector, which also produces ARSA’s Annual Market Assessment, and presented during ATEC’s 2024 Washington Fly-In.

The official release took place on Capitol Hill, as ATEC members representing part 147 schools, repair stations, and operators engaged the U.S. Congress on key mandates from this year’s reauthorization of the FAA. The report indicates new mechanic certificates jumped 32 percent in 2023, enrollment at aviation maintenance technician schools (AMTS) was up 6 percent, and 32 percent more American military veterans obtained FAA certification compared to 2022.

Despite the good news, the influx of new mechanics will be insufficient to meet commercial aviation’s projected needs amid rising demand for air travel for the next decade. The report estimates the current shortage to be 9 percent and projects it to reach nearly 20 percent – equivalent to about 25,000 certificated mechanics – by 2028. This continued shortfall reinforces ARSA’s broad interest in bolstering multiple pathways to maintenance careers, particularly in repair stations where the report indicated total employment includes non-certificated personnel filling the majority of technical roles.

As reported by ATEC, the report’s additional takeaways include:

• The surge in new certifications can be attributed to several factors, including an end (and apparent reversal) of deferrals, the development of new work-based certification pathway programs, a rise in student certifications in A&P programs, and increased enrollment.

• A lack of resources is constraining AMTS throughput. Many schools report maximum practical capacities that are below their allowable capacities due to shortages of instructors, facility space, or other resources. Designated Mechanic Examiner (DME) shortages are another key constraint. ATEC estimates that the industry needs 30% more DMEs just to account for the current flow of graduates.

• The percentage of women among newly certificated A&P mechanics is rising, but slowly. Women make up just 2.8 percent of the mechanic population, up from 2.2 percent a decade ago. Rates in the pipeline are slightly better: 6.7 percent of new AMTS-sourced certificated mechanics are women, compared to 4 percent of those sourced from military or civilian experience.

• The AMTS student load factor, which measures the ratio of available A&P program seats to enrolled students, has improved to 65 percent. Nationally, there are an estimated 12,000 seats available within the A&P school network. Despite commendable efforts and initiatives that boosted AMTS enrollments by 5% last year, one in every three available seats remains unfilled.

Before the official release, ARSA Vice President of Operations Brett Levanto joined the group on Sept. 18 for a day of briefings and discussion focused on how industry must push the agency to make good on provisions in the new law. Levanto, ATEC Executive Director Crystal Maguire, and Airlines for America Managing Director of Engineering & Maintenance, walked the group through the current status and next steps related to several key technician career development initiatives:

(1) Funding and program administration for technician workforce grants.

(2) Early testing for high school students completing aviation maintenance curriculua.

(3) Improved military to civilian career transitions.

(4) General expansion of technical education and funding opportunities.

Stay tuned to ARSA for updates on its pursuit of these programs and partnership with ATEC.

To download the pipeline report, click here to visit the ATEC website.

To review ARSA’s advocacy related to this year’s FAA reauthorization law, click here.

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